WTA Katowice

The European clay court season is here and action on the WTA Tour gets underway in Poland. The inaugural event is being held indoors and along with Stuttgart is the only indoor clay court tournament on the tour. Petra Kvitova and Roberta Vinci are the top two seeds in the event and both best priced at 11/4. In fact Kvitova only lives a couple of hours drive from the venue and has been handed a draw that on paper appears relatively straightforward.

However, it's in the bottom half of the the draw where we will turn our attention with Klara Zakopalova at 20/1. The Czech is significantly overpriced where she faces a tricky but not overwhelming quarter of the draw. We are happy to back her with one point each-way, meaning one point at 20/1 to win the title and one point at 10/1 to reach the final.

1* Klara Zakopalova win Katowice (each-way) at 20/1 (Paddy Power) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Weekly Overview (9)

There were no selections made for the past week's tournaments and so everything is as it was on The Overrule.

Weekly performance - Stake: N/A Profit/Loss: N/A ROI: N/A

Season performance - Stake: 116.00 Profit/Loss: +54.41 ROI: 46.91%

A Step Ahead: French Open

Back in late January The Overrule tipped Svetlana Kuznetsova for the French Open at 150/1 and another opportunity presents itself in early April to take advantage of a value price on a likely contender for the title. Kuznetsova is now best priced 50/1 to win Roland Garros and as short as 33/1 and The Overrule believes our second venture into the outright market will prove to be another case of us buying the price at the right time.

Sam Stosur has an outstanding record in Paris over the past few years and the 20/1 on offer has to be snapped up for her to have another good run at the French Open. Stosur is as short as 12/1 and that price is a far more accurate representation of her capabilities. In 2009 the Australian reached the last four, went one better a year later in reaching the final, suffered an early exit in the third round in 2011, before another semi-final appearance last year.

This year's French Open for the women will be the most open Grand Slam of the year with no sure frontrunners for the title. This presents the possibility of some big prices giving good runs for your money and we feel pretty comfortable with Kuznetsova 150/1 and Stosur 20/1 as part of our portfolio with the possibility of more additions and abilities to lay off once the tournament begins.

Stosur is a curious case for me, she's only ever won three singles titles in her career and yet one of them happens to be the US Open - which I know to my cost, but that's a story for another day! Sam is one of those rare players on tour who can produce a good tournament out of nowhere and off the back of no form. She's often very hard to read as a bettor. Playing well doesn't mean she'll play well the next day, likewise a run of bad form doesn't mean she won't be capable of reaching the latter stages of an event.

Sam's form has been poor this season and is returning from injury in Charleston later this evening. Providing she remains healthy she is one of the players on tour who will expect to make some noise during this clay court season and the time to back her for the French Open is now.

No article on Stosur is complete without this...


The Overrule will be backing Stosur with two points each-way which means two points at 20/1 to win the title and two points at 10/1 to reach the final.

2* Sam Stosur win French Open (each-way) @ 20/1 (Paddy Power) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Weekly Overview (8)

This week's breakdown below;

The Overrule placed maximum confidence in Serena Williams for Miami and she delivered the title despite twice having to come from a set and a break down in the tournament. Serena's cumulative match-betting price ended up at a touch under EVS as she saw off Flavia Pennetta 1/50, Ayumi Morita 1/33, Dominika Cibulkova 1/25, Li Na 1/4, Agnieszka Radwanska 1/6 and Maria Sharapova 1/4.

Serena's rhythm and timing was nowhere to be found for much of the first set and a half against Cibulkova before she was able to rally from 4-1 down in the second set to win the match in three. I expected Li to present the biggest challenge to Serena during the event and this year's Australian Open runner-up had her chances to take the match to a decider but fell short.

After a quite devastating display against Radwanska it looked highly likely that another routine win over Sharapova in the final was on the cards. I certainly didn't see Maria's performance coming. There had been little to suggest it was on the cards, particularly after a mighty struggle against Sara Errani in the last eight. Maria played very well against Jelena Jankovic in the semi-finals but the Serbian had such a short turnaround from her quarter-final that it was difficult to read anything meaningful into it.

The first two sets of the final was women's tennis at its best. The quality and intensity from both players was exceptional. Sharapova refused to back down against Serena for the first time since she was a teenager. Eventually Serena was able to break Sharapova down, whose defence had been surprisingly excellent, which is often an area which Serena exploits well against Maria.

Despite the loss for Sharapova the match was a huge positive for her going forward. After so many meetings over a number of years where she has looked incapable of beating Serena, she was finally able to hurt the world number one and threaten her. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out the next time they meet on whichever surface. Sharapova isn't someone who lacks self-belief or will to win but she has been devoid of self-belief in important moments against Serena for many years.

I'm not convinced future matches will be more like this one as opposed to their other encounters last season, but it's certainly something we will have to consider more seriously when they next face each other.

Here's our weekly breakdown and season numbers thus far;

Weekly performance - Stake: 5.00 Profit/Loss: +5.50 ROI: 110.00%

Season performance - Stake: 116.00 Profit/Loss: +54.41 ROI: 46.91%

WTA Miami

Main draw action is already underway in Miami as Serena Williams makes her return to the tour following her yearly boycott of Indian Wells. Serena and Victoria Azarenka have separated themselves from the remainder of the tour over the past twelve months and that dominance is liable to continue in Miami.

Azarenka may well have to withdraw from the event at some point as she continues to struggle with injury which forced her to allow Caroline Wozniacki a walkover at Indian Wells. That leaves the legitimate challengers to Serena sparse as Azarenka and Petra Kvitova are the only players currently on tour that can give Serena a run for her money when she's in form on hard courts.

Kvitova and Li Na are in Serena's half of the draw with Li playing an event for the first time since the Australian Open final. Indian Wells champion Maria Sharapova will fancy her chances of reaching a consecutive final with an ailing Azarenka in the bottom half of the draw.

The Overrule estimates Serena's chances of tournament success are significantly higher than the 47.6% that she is priced at - at 11/10. 8/13 would be a fairer reflection of Serena's true value in this event given Azarenka's injury issues, Li's absence of match sharpness and Kvitova's unreliability. We're happy to go all in on Serena with a maximum five point selection.

5* Serena Williams win Miami @ 11/10 (Boylesports)

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Weekly Overview (7)

This week's breakdown below;

Petra Kvitova's winning streak ended at nine as she was beaten by Maria Kirilenko in the last eight. We were one step away from an intriguing battle between Maria Sharapova and Kvitova but Kirilenko scuppered any chances of that match-up coming to fruition. Kvitova led 6-4 4-1 before imploding at the flick of a switch in the second set.

Tomas Berdych made good progress on his way to the last four where his section of the draw opened up very nicely. Berdych had said he would rather face Roger Federer than Rafael Nadal in the last four and the Spaniard - playing his first hard court event since returning from injury - proved why with a largely commanding performance. Berdych had his chance to extend the match into a deciding set but he couldn't serve out the second set when his opportunity came.

Here's our weekly breakdown and season numbers thus far;

Weekly performance - Stake: 6.00 Profit/Loss: -6.00 ROI: -100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 111.00 Profit/Loss: +48.91 ROI: 44.06%

ATP Indian Wells

Tomas Berdych has been in a rich vein of form reaching the final in Dubai and Marseille in recent weeks and has the opportunity for a deep run at Indian Wells having been drawn in the most appealing quarter of the draw.

World number one Novak Djokovic takes his place at the top of the first quarter, Andy Murray and Juan Martin del Potro reside in the second quarter while Rafael Nadal and defending champion Roger Federer could meet in the last eight from the fourth quarter. Berdych and David Ferrer are in the third quarter and both players will view this as a chance to have their best run at the tournament.

Neither Berdych or Ferrer have been beyond the quarter-final stage at the first Masters event of the season but that should change for one of them over the next ten days. Ferrer dismantled Berdych during the Davis Cup final in straight sets and if they meet at Indian Wells it will be their first battle since that encounter.

Should Berdych reach the last four he's liable to meet Federer (who he just beat in Dubai) or Nadal (who is playing his first hard court event back on tour since returning from injury). Djokovic is unbeaten this season and it's hard to back against him reaching another final and winning another title. Berdych has an awful record against Djokovic but the 11/1 for a place in the final is more than big enough for us to get involved.

The Overrule is happy to ride the hot hand of Berdych at an inflated 22/1. We'll back him with one point each-way meaning one point at 22/1 to win the title and one point at 11/1 to reach the final.

1* Tomas Berdych win Indian Wells (each-way) at 22/1 (Stan James) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

WTA Indian Wells

The path is clear for Victoria Azarenka to defend her Indian Wells title and the prices are a fair reflection of that. Azarenka is no bigger than 11/8 to lift the title and as short as EVS. The Overrule expects Azarenka to demolish the top half of the draw to reach the final but it's in the bottom half of the draw where we find some value.

Petra Kvitova and Maria Sharapova are on a collision course for a semi-final meeting and the 9/1 on Kvitova is too big in the The Overrule's assessment. Kvitova's first test is likely to come in the fourth round against Dominika Cibulkova followed by a quarter-final encounter with Agnieszka Radwanska. Sharapova is as big as 9/2, but we're more interested in the 9/1 on Kvitova because it's the Czech who would have more chance of beating Azarenka in a potential final.

The Overrule will back Kvitova with two points each-way meaning two points at 9/1 to win the tournament and two points at 9/2 to reach the final.

2* Petra Kvitova win Indian Wells (each-way) at 9/1 (Stan James) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Pending Selections Overview (1)

As there is a lull in the tennis season as we await Indian Wells to begin on both the ATP and WTA Tours it gives us a chance on The Overrule to overview our selections outstanding.

Sara Errani under 2.5 singles titles 3* @ EVS - Errani won her first title of the season in Acapulco on clay where she was tournament favorite to do so. The Italian also reached the final of Paris and Dubai where she lost to Mona Barthel and Petra Kvitova respectively. Clay court events will define whether Errani will go over this total. If she is still on one title going into the grass court season we will be very short odds-on to win this selection.

Petra Kvitova ranked higher than Angelique Kerber 3* @ 4/5 - Kvitova is closing in on Kerber having captured the title in Dubai. Kerber currently ranks 6th on 5400 points while Kvitova has moved up to 7th since the start of the season on 4980 points. In the yearly race Kvitova is ahead on 976 points (6 events) to Kerber's 602 points (5 events). Kvitova appears to be regaining her confidence and form while Kerber is playing while not 100%. Kerber has much to defend as the season progresses and Kvitova would have to be priced more in the 1/2 range to finish above her at this point.

Mona Barthel under 37.5 year end ranking 2* @ 20/23 - Barthel is already well under her ranking quota at 28 having won the indoor title in Paris. With so little to defend over the coming months it's hard to see anything but further progress for Mona. She has a great chance of ending the season in the top 20 and making a mockery of her ranking quota.

Eugenie Bouchard under 106.5 year end ranking 2* @ 20/23 - Bouchard is ranked 123 up from 147 at the start of the season. Genie hadn't produced much of anything this season up until a recent good showing in Acapulco. 78 points off a place in the top 106 of the world I'd fully expect Genie to beat her ranking quota by the end of the season.

Svetlana Kuznetsova French Open outright each-way 0.5* @ 150/1 - The Overrule backed Kuznetsova for the French Open at 150/1 at the tail end of the Australian Open and that price has since been slashed. Sveta is now as short as 33/1 and as big as 50/1. The 150/1 is long gone and with the French Open likely to be the most open Grand Slam of the year for the women we are very happy with the value obtained on this selection.

Czech Republic Fed Cup outright 2* @ 5/1 - All four favorites won their ties in the last eight and so there wasn't much movement in the market. The Czechs who have won Fed Cup the past two years are now as short as 3/1 to defend the title and as big as 4/1. The Czechs travel to Italy on clay in April and if they reach the final they would host either Russia or Slovakia indoors on hard. The Overrule would maintain the Czechs still represent value at 4/1 and we are quite happy to have got them at 5/1.

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Weekly Overview (6)

This week's breakdown below;

Sam Querrey lost in the second round for a consecutive week falling to eventual champion Ernests Gulbis at Delray Beach. Querrey led 4-0 in the deciding set but somehow found a way to lose in a tie-breaker having also served for the match at 5-4.

Kristina Mladenovic had a very straightforward march to the last four in Florianopolis without dropping a set but was completely bamboozled by the slice of Monica Niculescu in the semi-finals. Mladenovic failed to hold serve once in the match and could only put two games on the board. Niculescu went on to win the title in Brazil. Valeria Savinykh fell in the first round to Timea Babos in three sets. The 100/1 selection was soon cut down to 50/1 and then 33/1 by Betfred after The Overrule had highlighted the value on offer.

In one of our season long selections Sara Errani won her first title of the season in Acapulco. It was an expected triumph for Errani who has had a very good start to the season. The Italian reached the final of Paris and Dubai earlier this year. The Overrule backed Errani to win less than 2.5 titles this season and now Sara has her first title on the board. It's unlikely she'll win the title at Indian Wells or Miami up coming, it's the clay court season which will largely define this selection for us.

Here's our weekly breakdown and season numbers thus far;

Weekly performance - Stake: 5.00 Profit/Loss: -5.00 ROI: -100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 105.00 Profit/Loss: +54.91 ROI: 52.30% 

WTA Florianopolis

Kristina Mladenovic has already shot up the rankings this season and she appears overpriced for a good run on the purple hard courts in Brazil. Mladenovic has already moved up 40 spots in the rankings this year in large part thanks to a semi-final appearance in Paris (where she defeated Petra Kvitova in straight sets) and a quarter-final showing in Memphis.

Yaroslava Shvedova is as short as 7/2 for tournament success in Florianopolis but hasn't shown any form this season and is placed in Mladenovic's quarter. Venus Williams is tournament favourite and number one seed at 7/4.

Another player in the same half of the draw - Valeria Savinykh - is absurdly overpriced in The Overrule's view at a massive 100/1! Savinykh has quickly gained the tag of "Baby Bepa" for her many similarities in game style and mannerisms to Vera Zvonareva and her odds are not a true reflection of her capabilities.

Savinykh came through qualifying at the Australian Open to reach the third round and beat Dominika Cibulkova along the way. She begins her campaign in Brazil against Timea Babos where she is a marginal favorite to win. Savinykh would then be the underdog in her remaining matches if seedings play out, but at 100/1 we are clearly obtaining a huge chunk of value.

The Overrule will back both Mladenovic and Savinykh in the outright each-way market even though both players are in the same half of the draw and could meet in the last four. One point each-way on Mladenovic at 16/1 to win the tournament and 8/1 to reach the final. Half a point on Savinykh at 100/1 to win the tournament and 50/1 to reach the final.

1* Kristina Mladenovic win Florianopolis (each-way) @ 16/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

0.5* Valeria Savinykh win Florianopolis (each-way) @ 100/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Weekly Overview (5)

This week's breakdown below;

Lesia Tsurenko made a mockery of her 2/1 price to beat Kirsten Flipkens in Memphis. Tsurenko went into the third set with the ascendancy but couldn't get ahead and eventually lost out in the decider. Petra Kvitova was a great price for The Overrule at 11/10 to beat Agnieszka Radwanska but shockingly drifted to bigger than 2/1 just before play got underway. Whatever cause there was for such a drift proved to be completely unfounded as Kvitova obliterated Radwanska with a devastating exhibition of power and precision.

Sam Querrey lost early in Memphis to Marinko Matosevic in the second round despite leading by a break in the deciding set. Tomas Berdych reached the final in Marseille and had a match point in the second set tie-break. However, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga boomed down an ace to save match point and eventually prevailed 6-4 in the decider.

Here's our weekly breakdown and season numbers thus far;

Weekly performance - Stake: 8.00 Profit/Loss: -0.80 ROI: -10.00%

Season performance - Stake: 100.00 Profit/Loss: +59.91 ROI: 59.91%

ATP Delray Beach

The Overrule backed Sam Querrey each-way this week in Memphis and despite his earlier than anticipated exit we're happy to back him again in Delray Beach. On paper the draw is quite negotiable for the American and his price is even bigger than last week.

Querrey meets Michael Russell in first round action before an encounter with either James Blake or a qualifier. In the last eight he could meet Xavier Malisse - who first made the Delray Beach final in 1999 and has since won the event twice and reached two other finals. Querrey is 3-0 against Malisse lifetime. In the semi-finals Querrey is seeded to meet Tommy Haas, but since the German pulled out of Memphis prior to the event, it's hard to justify backing him at 13/2 with that unknown to factor in.

The tournament favorite, Kei Nishikori, takes his place in the top half of the draw and plays in the Memphis final later today.

The Overrule will place one point each-way on Querrey, which means one point at 14/1 to win the title and one point at 7/1 to reach the final.

1* Sam Querrey win Delray Beach (each-way) @ 14/1 (Stan James) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

WTA Dubai

The unsurprising withdrawals of Victoria Azarenka and Serena Williams from Dubai and the absence of Maria Sharapova have propelled Petra Kvitova to the top of the talking points on the WTA Tour for the week. The question being - is Petra back? Kvitova showed signs of life in Doha last week, both in a comeback win against Nadia Petrova and by giving Serena all she could handle.

As many of you know I'm a huge admirer of Petra's potential which is boundless. Only Serena can claim to be as or more naturally talented than Kvitova of the players currently on tour in my view. Harnessing that talent is a different problem altogether, a problem Petra has been struggling mightily with for the majority of the past 12 months.

Kvitova is priced up 11/10 to beat defending Dubai champion Agnieszka Radwanska and with court conditions fast and Petra serving closer to her usual standard that price is inflated to The Overrule. Sportingbet have the encounter at 5/6 a piece and that is more realistic. Radwanska was made to work very hard by Yulia Putintseva despite her straight sets win and Kvitova has the ability - if on form - to wipe Aga away on a court like this.

I decided to steer clear of Petra after Paris until she showed signs she has recovered herself and although I'm not convinced at all that she is all the way back, I'm happy with this price for this one off match to take a run at it. Kvitova leads the head to head 3-1 with her only defeat coming in last year's year end championship in Istanbul where Petra was suffering with bronchitis and withdrew from the event the next day.

As always on The Overrule we only look to match-bet with books that void retirements at any stage of the match. Fortunately on this occasion the best price on offer is with a book that voids in such circumstances.

2* Petra Kvitova beat Agnieszka Radwanska @ 11/10 (Bet 365)

WTA Memphis

Kirsten Flipkens and Lesia Tsurenko meet in second round action in Memphis where The Overrule believes the Ukrainian is significantly overpriced. Both players have had good starts to their respective seasons with the Belgian reaching a quarter-final, semi-final and fourth round at the Australian Open. Tsurenko took advantage of being a lucky loser in Brisbane to reach the semi-finals and advanced to the third round of the Australian Open as a qualifier.

Both players lost out in the only Fed Cup rubber they played with both matches being on clay before entering Memphis. Tsurenko and Flipkens both took care of their first round matches with minimum fuss. The Overrule definitely feels like Lesia is being undervalued here and Kirsten doesn't deserve this level of favoritism. I have the match far closer at Lesia's 5/4 to 4/7 on Flipkens, so the 2/1 is a huge price for us.

The Overrule will back Tsurenko with a two point selection in a match that doesn't appear to me to be as straight forward as the odds suggest.

2* Lesia Tsurenko beat Kirsten Flipkens @ 2/1 (Bet 365)

Weekly Overview (4)

Here's a breakdown of the week gone by.

Caroline Wozniacki provided us with five points as she defeated Mona Barthel in straight sets priced as an underdog, whereas we had her priced as a pick 'em at worst. Victoria Azarenka gave us nine points by defending her title in Doha. Elina Svitolina made a mockery of her price by reaching the last four without dropping a set. In the end she lost in the semi-finals as the shortest match price she had been all week against Catalina Castano. That defeat cost us four points when we were on the verge of some potentially huge gains.

Juan Martin del Potro cruised to the title in Rotterdam, aided by the early exit of Roger Federer. That triumph netted us twelve points. Nicolas Almagro lost out to David Nalbandian in a deciding set tie-breaker in the last eight costing us one point. Tommy Haas made serene progress to the final in San Jose but was beaten fairly comfortably by Milos Raonic. That place in the final resulted in a four point gain.

Weekly performance - Stake: 19.00 Profit/Loss: +25.00 ROI: 131.58%

Season performance - Stake: 92.00 Profit/Loss: +60.71 ROI: 65.99%

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ATP Marseille

Tomas Berdych has been able to recharge his batteries over the past couple of weeks after his Davis Cup exploits in Switzerland. The Czech pulled out of Montpellier shortly after the tie where he was scheduled to be number one seed. That tie included a marathon doubles match and Berdych will be hoping for a far smoother time of it in Marseille.

Juan Martin del Potro is number two seed for the event and justifies his favoritism at 11/4 to defend the title he won last year. Del Potro is coming in off the back of a title in Rotterdam and has every chance of taking a back to back title in France.

However, it's Berdych's price of 4/1 that appeals to The Overrule. After a first round bye he'll meet either Jarkko Nieminen or Ernests Gulbis. Janko Tipsarevic or Richard Gasquet may await in the last four. The indoor conditions will suit Berdych very nicely and we'll be backing him with one point each-way, meaning one point at 4/1 to win the title and one point at 2/1 to reach the final.

1* Tomas Berdych win Marseille (each-way) @ 4/1 (Sky Bet) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

ATP Memphis

Sam Querrey reached the semi-finals in San Jose this week and he'll look to improve on that performance in Memphis next week. The big serving American is a former winner in Memphis (2010) and has reached the last eight on four occasions.

Drawn in the top half of the draw Querrey has avoided Milos Raonic, John Isner and Tommy Haas who take their places in the bottom half. Querrey should negotiate his first couple of matches without too much trouble, he starts off with Alejandro Falla, and could meet Alexandr Dolgopolov in the last eight. Marin Cilic or Kei Nishikori look likely to await in the last four. 

At 12/1 Querrey appears to be a fair bit overpriced according to The Overrule. A one point each-way selection, meaning one point at 12/1 for the title and one point at 6/1 to reach the final. 

1* Sam Querrey win Memphis (each-way) @ 12/1 (Victor Chandler) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

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WTA Doha (II)

Mona Barthel is in a rich vein of form having won the indoor title in Paris and off the back of two convincing victories in Doha against Yulia Putintseva and Angelique Kerber. However, aside from the fact Kerber wasn't nearly 100% healthy in her match with German compatriot Barthel, there is little justification at this point for Mona to be priced up as a favourite against Caroline Wozniacki.

If Barthel's A-game is on, she has the weapons to brush Caro aside, but let's not pretend that Mona has reached a stage in her development where she can be expected to perform like that at will. Many of us have long expected big strides from Barthel over the past year or so and she is certainly showing encouraging signs, but 4/7 to beat Wozniacki is ludicrous to The Overrule.

Wozniacki came through a tough first set with Sorana Cirstea in the last round in which she saved multiple set points in the first set tie-breaker before storming away in the second set as Sorana - for the umpteenth time in her career - imploded.

The Dane who has a body that commentator Jason Goodall is extremely fond of according to his commentary in the last round is a very good price for us at 5/4. We'll be happy to place a near maximum selection of four points on her to extend her head to head with Barthel to 3-0.

At worst I would imagine this price to represent trading material for those of you who like to lock in a profit in-play when the opportunity arises. Caro should at worst be a pick 'em in this encounter, but more like 8/11 in my view, as Mona hasn't shown consistency in match-ups like this during the early stages of her career thus far.

As always on The Overrule we prefer to back match-bets with void books and happily on this occasion the best price is with a void book.

4* Caroline Wozniacki beat Mona Barthel @ 5/4 (Paddy Power)

WTA Doha

If you were missing women's Grand Slam action then Doha is just the medicine you need as all but Li Na of the world's top 10 have made their way to Qatar. The draw couldn't have worked out better for defending champion and world number one Victoria Azarenka as she has avoided all of the few names who could have seriously troubled her before the final.

Betfred have Azarenka at 3/1 for the tournament and with the each-way terms 6/4 to reach the final. That 6/4 looks big given her route to the final and it's only against Serena Williams who Azarenka wouldn't be favourite against in the final, so 3/1 each-way seems very appealing.

The bottom half of the draw is where 6/4 favourite Serena resides and although Serena always justifies favouritism in The Overrule's view given that we believe she is the greatest female tennis player of all time, that price does appear skinny given she will probably have to come through Petra Kvitova, Maria Sharapova and Azarenka to win the tournament. Add to that we don't know how well she has recovered from the injuries she picked up in Melbourne.

It's not that an on-form Serena would have any trouble defeating an out of sorts Kvitova or a Sharapova who she has dominated mercilessly or an Azarenka who she has a stranglehold over lifetime. It's that we don't quite know how good a shape she is in or how well she is moving to justify taking 6/4 on a draw which has presented her with the potential of some of the stiffest challenges she could likely receive.

Serena beating Azarenka in the final is the most likely outcome in Doha, but as far as pricing goes Azarenka is the each-way play. The Overrule will back two points each-way on Azarenka, meaning two points at 3/1 to win the title and two points at 6/4 to reach the final.

2* Victoria Azarenka win Doha (each-way) @ 3/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)