Monday, 28 October 2013

Weekly Overview (Specials & 22)

Our season specials have come to a close, so it's time to look at that breakdown as well as the past week.

Sara Errani ended the season with one title which was under the 2.5 line. She was priced as favorite to win two titles this season in Acapulco and Palermo, the Italian won Acapulco but lost out to doubles partner Roberta Vinci in the final in Palermo. Errani made two other finals this season in Paris (Mona Barthel) and Dubai (Petra Kvitova).

Petra Kvitova ended the season ranked number six in the world while Angelique Kerber dipped down to nine. Their race was close until the Asian swing where Kvitova pulled away.

Mona Barthel ended the season ranked number thirty-four in the world which was under the 37.5 line we needed her to be at. This came in large part due to the early portion of the season where Barthel won Paris, reached a final in Hobart and a semi-final in Auckland. Since Indian Wells Barthel was barely able to put consecutive wins together.

Eugenie Bouchard obliterated her ranking over/under line which was set at 106.5. The Canadian began the year at 147 and ended it at 32.

Specials performance - Stake: 10.00 Profit/Loss: +8.88 ROI: 88.80%

Season performance - Stake: 313.50 Profit/Loss: +29.77 ROI: 9.49%

Here's the past week's breakdown...

Petra Kvitova defeated Agnieszka Radwanska in straight sets on the opening day of the event. Victoria Azarenka not only failed to win her group but she was also unable to qualify for the last four. Serena Williams capped off a quite phenomenal season with another title. 

Weekly performance - Stake: 10.00 Profit/Loss: +1.29 ROI: 12.90%

Season performance - Stake: 323.50 Profit/Loss: +31.06 ROI: 9.60%

Sunday, 27 October 2013

ATP Paris

A long season is drawing to its final conclusion with the race to London still being a possibility for a number of players. One of those players is 2008 Paris champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he appeals in the outright each-way market at 40/1. Tsonga is drawn in the top half where he could meet world number one Rafael Nadal in the last eight, while Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro take their places in the bottom half.

It has been quite a while since a number one seed won Paris, the rigors of a long and demanding season taking its toll on the top players at this stage of the season with their eyes usually looking ahead to the year end championships. Andre Agassi was the last man to do so in 1999.

The Overrule will be placing half a point each-way on Tsonga at 40/1 and if he should make the last four would give us flexibility for the latter stages of the tournament.

0.5* Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win Paris (each-way) at 40/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Monday, 21 October 2013

Fed Cup Final

In short, the Russian team is in disarray.

In what was already expected to be a tough encounter in Italy on clay against the likes of Sara Errani, Roberta Vinci and Flavia Pennetta, the Russians find themselves without - for one reason or another - Maria Sharapova (who aside from being injured stated she wouldn't play the final as a respect to those who had got Russia there), Maria Kirilenko (Sofia), Svetlana Kuznetsova (unknown), Ekaterina Makarova (injured), Elena Vesnina (Sofia), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Sofia) and Nadia Petrova (injured and is only playing the WTA YEC doubles for the sake of her partner).

Whatever team the Russians end up with will be significant underdogs against a strong Italy team. The 1/2 available on Italy lifting the Fed Cup will surely start to nosedive once this news starts to filter out. The time to move is now with a maximum five point selection.

5* Italy to win the Fed Cup at 1/2 (Sky Bet)

WTA Year End Championships

The last meaningful week of the WTA is upon us (The Overrule doesn't consider Sofia meaningful no matter how much the WTA wants to make us believe it is) in Istanbul as the best players in the world round out the season.

The Overrule has three selections from the outset, one in the outright market, one in the outright group market and one selection for the first day's play.

4* Serena Williams win Istanbul at 8/11 (Bet Victor)

3* Victoria Azarenka win White Group at 8/11 (Sky Bet)

3* Petra Kvitova beat Agnieszka Radwanska at 7/10 (Bet Victor)

Weekly Overview (21)

Weekly breakdown.

Season overview.

Weekly performance - Stake: 7.00 Profit/Loss: -7.00 ROI: -100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 303.50 Profit/Loss: +20.89 ROI: 6.88%

Sunday, 13 October 2013

WTA Luxembourg

In Luxembourg neither of the top three priced favorites appeal with Caroline Wozniacki too short at 11/5, Sabine Lisicki with an injury cloud at 5/1 and Sloane Stephens who continually underwhelms in tournaments of this nature at 8/1.

Looking further afield double digit prices on Andrea Petkovic at 10/1 and Lucie Safarova at 12/1 present more value. One point each-way on both players.

1* Andrea Petkovic win Luxembourg (each-way) at 10/1 (Ladbrokes) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

1* Lucie Safarova win Luxembourg (each-way) at 12/1 (Bet Victor) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

WTA Moscow

Two each-way selections for WTA Moscow focuses in on two Russian players in opposite halves of the draw - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Svetlana Kuznetsova. Potentially great value on Pavlyuchenkova with the possibility that top seed Angelique Kerber could pull out which would further increase Pavlyuchenkova's chances over what is an already inflated 28/1.

One point each-way on Pavlyuchenkova at 28/1 and half a point each-way on Kuznetsova at 20/1.

1* Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova win Moscow (each-way) at 28/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

0.5* Svetlana Kuznetsova win Moscow (each-way) at 20/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)