Monday, 18 November 2013

Weekly Overview (25)

This week's breakdown which concludes the 2013 season...

The Czech Republic retained the Davis Cup with a 3-2 win in Serbia. As expected once Janko Tipsarevic's withdrawal was made official, the tie boiled down to the doubles rubber where the Czechs repeated their straight sets success over the same opponents the previous year.

Weekly performance - Stake: 2.00 Profit/Loss: 5.00 ROI: 250.00%

Season performance - Stake: 331.50 Profit/Loss: +34.56 ROI: 10.43%

Later this week The Overrule will post a Season Overview as we look back on the 2013 campaign and look briefly ahead to what The Overrule has in store for 2014. 

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Monday, 11 November 2013

Weekly Overview (24)

This week's breakdown...

Tomas Berdych lost out to Stanislas Wawrinka in three sets on the opening day of the World Tour Finals. Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic meet later tonight in the final which fittingly pits the two best players in the world against each other.

Weekly performance - Stake: 3.00 Profit/Loss: -3.00 ROI: 100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 329.50 Profit/Loss: +29.56 ROI: 8.97%

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Saturday, 9 November 2013

Davis Cup Final

Next week's Davis Cup final will draw a close to the tennis season and Serbia are as short as 2/7 to win the trophy for the second time in their history. That favoritism underestimates the true chances of success for the defending champions, the Czech Republic, who are as big as 5/2.

This will be the third time in the past five years that the duo of Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek have led the Czechs to the Davis Cup final. Both are experienced campaigners in the event who have had plenty of success in the team format.

The Serbians will rely on Novak Djokovic but beneath that there are cracks and question marks. Viktor Troicki is unavailable while he serves a ban, which means Serbia will need to count on Janko Tipsarevic as the second singles player. Given a season of very poor form and results along with some injury concerns, it's easy to understand why Serbian fans might not be as bullish about this final as could be expected.

The final will be played on indoor hard which will suit both teams and there is no decided advantage in that aspect.

On paper The Overrule would expect (as anyone would) Djokovic to win both of his singles rubbers, he holds a 14-2 record over Berydch and both of his defeats came away from hard/indoor court on grass and clay. As well as holding a 8-1 record over Stepanek, with his solitary loss coming way back in 2006 in a deciding set tie-break.

It's the remaining rubbers where the Czechs will feel they could capitalise to defend their title. Despite a losing 2-4 record against Tipsarevic on hard courts Berdych will be a strong favorite to beat the Serbian based on current form. Tipsarevic beat Stepanek in straight sets during the Davis Cup semi-final in 2010 but his form between then and now is drastically different.

Could Tipsarevic be inspired in front of a home crowd and rediscover some of his form of recent years to provide Djokovic with the modicum of help needed to win the title? Sure. That is entirely possible. However, as we currently stand that would appear to be more wishful thinking of the Serbian variety than a likely possibility.

The doubles rubber on the Saturday should favor the Czechs. Berdych/Stepanek have a phenomenal record playing together at Davis Cup level with a 13-1 win/loss record. Among those wins is a 2-0 record against Serbia. In 2012 they beat Nenad Zimonjic and Ilija Bozoljac in straight sets at home and in 2010 they defeated Zimonjic and Djokovic in four sets in Serbia.

It is quite possible that the Czechs will head into Sunday 2-1 up with the pressure on Serbia to overcome the deficit, much like they were able to do during the 2010 semi-final (on that occasion Djokovic was unavailable to play on the opening Friday). The 5/2 available on the Czechs definitely appeals in that sense and could well provide us with an opportunity to manage that position further going into the final day's play.

The Overrule advises a two point selection on the Czechs at 5/2.

2* Czech Republic win Davis Cup at 5/2 (William Hill)

Sunday, 3 November 2013

ATP World Tour Finals

The World Tour Finals begin in London on Monday as the ATP season draws to a close. Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka kick off the event with both having met as recently as the US Open where Wawrinka prevailed. Wawrinka leads the overall head to head 7-5, but Berdych leads 2-0 in indoor meetings although it has been 5 years since they met indoors.

Berdych is making his fourth straight appearance at the event while Wawrinka has qualified for the first time. The two have been drawn in a group with world number one Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer. Despite the threat that Wawrinka poses, The Overrule tissue prices Berdych at 4/6 and thus we're happy to back the Czech at the 5/6 available at a number of books. Three points on Berdych at 4/6.

3* Tomas Berdych beat Stanislas Wawrinka at 5/6 (Winner)

Weekly Overview (23)

This week's breakdown...

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga didn't last long in Paris and neither did his hopes of reaching the World Tour Finals in London next week. Tsonga lost out to Kei Nishikori in a third set tie-break. Tsonga had two match points, one of which he double faulted away and the other which was saved by a Nishikori second serve ace. The last four points of the match ended double fault (Tsonga), second serve ace (Nishikori), first serve ace (Nishikori), double fault (Tsonga).

The Fed Cup was decided today which meant this selection could be settled...

Italy went off as short as 1/33 favorites after we were able to jump on the 1/2 available ahead of time before bookmakers caught on to the likely news that Russia would be missing many of their best players for various reasons. In the end Italy won 3-0 as expected but not without being given a huge scare in the first rubber where Alexandra Panova produced a display of quality and fight against Roberta Vinci. The Italian eventually prevailed 8-6 in the third set after Panova had served for the match three times. Sara Errani finished off the tie with straight sets victories in the second and third live rubbers. 

Off the court Flavia Pennetta stole the show

Earlier in the week The Overrule conducted a breakdown of how we have performed this season across various categories and against closing lines on Pinnacle. During the breakdown it became evident that there had been a three point staking error during the Australian Open where a three point void selection had been included in the overall stake performance. This has now been rectified and all numbers are now correct. The slight over staking of those three points meant our ROI for the season has been marginally lower than it actually was.

Weekly performance - Stake: 6.00 Profit/Loss: +1.50 ROI: 25.00%

Season performance - Stake: 326.50 Profit/Loss: +32.56 ROI: 9.97%

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Friday, 1 November 2013

Overview Correction

A 3 point selection void was incorrectly included in the breakdown of results during the Australian Open. The void was due to a concession for matches lost in five sets with Paddy Power.

The Australian Overview should have read staked 57 and not staked 60.

This error has now been corrected in the overall record at the top of the page with the 3 point stake taken off. Apologies for the oversight, it became apparent after a breakdown evaluation this morning. The stats at the top of the page now also include this week's 1 point loss on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Paris.