Wednesday, 20 March 2013

WTA Miami

Main draw action is already underway in Miami as Serena Williams makes her return to the tour following her yearly boycott of Indian Wells. Serena and Victoria Azarenka have separated themselves from the remainder of the tour over the past twelve months and that dominance is liable to continue in Miami.

Azarenka may well have to withdraw from the event at some point as she continues to struggle with injury which forced her to allow Caroline Wozniacki a walkover at Indian Wells. That leaves the legitimate challengers to Serena sparse as Azarenka and Petra Kvitova are the only players currently on tour that can give Serena a run for her money when she's in form on hard courts.

Kvitova and Li Na are in Serena's half of the draw with Li playing an event for the first time since the Australian Open final. Indian Wells champion Maria Sharapova will fancy her chances of reaching a consecutive final with an ailing Azarenka in the bottom half of the draw.

The Overrule estimates Serena's chances of tournament success are significantly higher than the 47.6% that she is priced at - at 11/10. 8/13 would be a fairer reflection of Serena's true value in this event given Azarenka's injury issues, Li's absence of match sharpness and Kvitova's unreliability. We're happy to go all in on Serena with a maximum five point selection.

5* Serena Williams win Miami @ 11/10 (Boylesports)

Sunday, 17 March 2013

Understated Relevance: 50 Shades of Tennis

Check out "50 Shades of Tennis" on Understated Relevance. A look back at some of the more controversial moments in Tennis over recent years.

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Weekly Overview (7)

This week's breakdown below;

Petra Kvitova's winning streak ended at nine as she was beaten by Maria Kirilenko in the last eight. We were one step away from an intriguing battle between Maria Sharapova and Kvitova but Kirilenko scuppered any chances of that match-up coming to fruition. Kvitova led 6-4 4-1 before imploding at the flick of a switch in the second set.

Tomas Berdych made good progress on his way to the last four where his section of the draw opened up very nicely. Berdych had said he would rather face Roger Federer than Rafael Nadal in the last four and the Spaniard - playing his first hard court event since returning from injury - proved why with a largely commanding performance. Berdych had his chance to extend the match into a deciding set but he couldn't serve out the second set when his opportunity came.

Here's our weekly breakdown and season numbers thus far;

Weekly performance - Stake: 6.00 Profit/Loss: -6.00 ROI: -100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 111.00 Profit/Loss: +48.91 ROI: 44.06%

Wednesday, 6 March 2013

ATP Indian Wells

Tomas Berdych has been in a rich vein of form reaching the final in Dubai and Marseille in recent weeks and has the opportunity for a deep run at Indian Wells having been drawn in the most appealing quarter of the draw.

World number one Novak Djokovic takes his place at the top of the first quarter, Andy Murray and Juan Martin del Potro reside in the second quarter while Rafael Nadal and defending champion Roger Federer could meet in the last eight from the fourth quarter. Berdych and David Ferrer are in the third quarter and both players will view this as a chance to have their best run at the tournament.

Neither Berdych or Ferrer have been beyond the quarter-final stage at the first Masters event of the season but that should change for one of them over the next ten days. Ferrer dismantled Berdych during the Davis Cup final in straight sets and if they meet at Indian Wells it will be their first battle since that encounter.

Should Berdych reach the last four he's liable to meet Federer (who he just beat in Dubai) or Nadal (who is playing his first hard court event back on tour since returning from injury). Djokovic is unbeaten this season and it's hard to back against him reaching another final and winning another title. Berdych has an awful record against Djokovic but the 11/1 for a place in the final is more than big enough for us to get involved.

The Overrule is happy to ride the hot hand of Berdych at an inflated 22/1. We'll back him with one point each-way meaning one point at 22/1 to win the title and one point at 11/1 to reach the final.

1* Tomas Berdych win Indian Wells (each-way) at 22/1 (Stan James) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

WTA Indian Wells

The path is clear for Victoria Azarenka to defend her Indian Wells title and the prices are a fair reflection of that. Azarenka is no bigger than 11/8 to lift the title and as short as EVS. The Overrule expects Azarenka to demolish the top half of the draw to reach the final but it's in the bottom half of the draw where we find some value.

Petra Kvitova and Maria Sharapova are on a collision course for a semi-final meeting and the 9/1 on Kvitova is too big in the The Overrule's assessment. Kvitova's first test is likely to come in the fourth round against Dominika Cibulkova followed by a quarter-final encounter with Agnieszka Radwanska. Sharapova is as big as 9/2, but we're more interested in the 9/1 on Kvitova because it's the Czech who would have more chance of beating Azarenka in a potential final.

The Overrule will back Kvitova with two points each-way meaning two points at 9/1 to win the tournament and two points at 9/2 to reach the final.

2* Petra Kvitova win Indian Wells (each-way) at 9/1 (Stan James) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Tuesday, 5 March 2013

Pending Selections Overview (1)

As there is a lull in the tennis season as we await Indian Wells to begin on both the ATP and WTA Tours it gives us a chance on The Overrule to overview our selections outstanding.

Sara Errani under 2.5 singles titles 3* @ EVS - Errani won her first title of the season in Acapulco on clay where she was tournament favorite to do so. The Italian also reached the final of Paris and Dubai where she lost to Mona Barthel and Petra Kvitova respectively. Clay court events will define whether Errani will go over this total. If she is still on one title going into the grass court season we will be very short odds-on to win this selection.

Petra Kvitova ranked higher than Angelique Kerber 3* @ 4/5 - Kvitova is closing in on Kerber having captured the title in Dubai. Kerber currently ranks 6th on 5400 points while Kvitova has moved up to 7th since the start of the season on 4980 points. In the yearly race Kvitova is ahead on 976 points (6 events) to Kerber's 602 points (5 events). Kvitova appears to be regaining her confidence and form while Kerber is playing while not 100%. Kerber has much to defend as the season progresses and Kvitova would have to be priced more in the 1/2 range to finish above her at this point.

Mona Barthel under 37.5 year end ranking 2* @ 20/23 - Barthel is already well under her ranking quota at 28 having won the indoor title in Paris. With so little to defend over the coming months it's hard to see anything but further progress for Mona. She has a great chance of ending the season in the top 20 and making a mockery of her ranking quota.

Eugenie Bouchard under 106.5 year end ranking 2* @ 20/23 - Bouchard is ranked 123 up from 147 at the start of the season. Genie hadn't produced much of anything this season up until a recent good showing in Acapulco. 78 points off a place in the top 106 of the world I'd fully expect Genie to beat her ranking quota by the end of the season.

Svetlana Kuznetsova French Open outright each-way 0.5* @ 150/1 - The Overrule backed Kuznetsova for the French Open at 150/1 at the tail end of the Australian Open and that price has since been slashed. Sveta is now as short as 33/1 and as big as 50/1. The 150/1 is long gone and with the French Open likely to be the most open Grand Slam of the year for the women we are very happy with the value obtained on this selection.

Czech Republic Fed Cup outright 2* @ 5/1 - All four favorites won their ties in the last eight and so there wasn't much movement in the market. The Czechs who have won Fed Cup the past two years are now as short as 3/1 to defend the title and as big as 4/1. The Czechs travel to Italy on clay in April and if they reach the final they would host either Russia or Slovakia indoors on hard. The Overrule would maintain the Czechs still represent value at 4/1 and we are quite happy to have got them at 5/1.

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Monday, 4 March 2013

Weekly Overview (6)

This week's breakdown below;

Sam Querrey lost in the second round for a consecutive week falling to eventual champion Ernests Gulbis at Delray Beach. Querrey led 4-0 in the deciding set but somehow found a way to lose in a tie-breaker having also served for the match at 5-4.

Kristina Mladenovic had a very straightforward march to the last four in Florianopolis without dropping a set but was completely bamboozled by the slice of Monica Niculescu in the semi-finals. Mladenovic failed to hold serve once in the match and could only put two games on the board. Niculescu went on to win the title in Brazil. Valeria Savinykh fell in the first round to Timea Babos in three sets. The 100/1 selection was soon cut down to 50/1 and then 33/1 by Betfred after The Overrule had highlighted the value on offer.

In one of our season long selections Sara Errani won her first title of the season in Acapulco. It was an expected triumph for Errani who has had a very good start to the season. The Italian reached the final of Paris and Dubai earlier this year. The Overrule backed Errani to win less than 2.5 titles this season and now Sara has her first title on the board. It's unlikely she'll win the title at Indian Wells or Miami up coming, it's the clay court season which will largely define this selection for us.

Here's our weekly breakdown and season numbers thus far;

Weekly performance - Stake: 5.00 Profit/Loss: -5.00 ROI: -100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 105.00 Profit/Loss: +54.91 ROI: 52.30%