Sunday, 28 July 2013

WTA Carlsbad

The Overrule had Victoria Azarenka tissue priced at 4/5 to 11/10 to win Carlsbad on the basis of the likely hardest route possible of Flavia Pennetta, Jelena Jankovic, Dominika Cibulkova or Ana Ivanovic and either Petra Kvitova or Agnieszka Radwanska in the final.

Coral went up with 13/8 initially which is a massive overprice and the 11/8 that Azarenka has been cut into remains an overprice. We missed out on the 13/8 but we're happy to go a maximum five points at 11/8. Azarenka is currently on a 25 match win streak in completed matches on outdoor hard. She hasn't lost on the surface since the US Open final against Serena Williams - which she was two points from winning.

Azarenka is returning from injury since her withdrawal at Wimbledon and all reports suggest she will be good to go with no restrictions.

5* Victoria Azarenka win Carlsbad at 11/8 (Coral)

Weekly Overview (15) & (16)

The Overrule had no overview last week since there were no selections made and here is this week's breakdown.

In the outright markets Madison Keys lost surprisingly early in Stanford going down to Vera Dushevina. Having played an awful opening set tie-break Keys was dispatched in straight sets by Dushevina who hadn't made much noise on the tour for quite a while.

In Umag Andreas Seppi benefited from a bye and two retirements to reach the last four where he lost out in three sets to Tommy Robredo in a hugely competitive battle.

Elina Svitolina made a mockery of her 13/8 price against Donna Vekic by winning for the loss of just five games. Svitolina is favored to beat Shahar Peer in tomorrow's final in Baku.

Weekly performance - Stake: 9.00 Profit/Loss: +4.13 ROI: 45.89%

Season performance - Stake: 239.50 Profit/Loss: +32.83 ROI: 13.71%

Saturday, 27 July 2013

A Step Ahead: US Open

In the past I've stressed the importance of looking to take players at their highest points price wise for Grand Slams and how to assess when those moments have arrived. The Overrule has already locked in positions on Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro and now is the time to strike in the women's event.

Victoria Azarenka has been out of action since Wimbledon where she was forced to withdraw before her second round match with Flavia Pennetta due to injury. During this period Azarenka's US Open price has gradually inched out and anything above 4/1 would have represented value to us. Azarenka is now as big as 6/1 in the win only market and 5/1 in the each-way market.

The world number three, along with Serena Williams, is head and shoulders above the rest of the tour on outdoor hard court and that dominance is detailed here and here. Azarenka and Williams will avoid each other until the US Open final - providing Azarenka can overtake Sharapova in the intervening period, which is more probable than not in The Overrule's estimation barring injury - meaning we have 5/2 on Azarenka to get past six players who she is overwhelmingly superior to in many cases. If Azarenka fails to lock in the number two seed there will be a 50/50 chance she avoids Williams when the draw is made.

On paper it looks highly likely they will meet again in the US Open final, where Azarenka served for the match last year and was just two points away from winning the title.

Azarenka is expected to return from injury next week in Carlsbad where she will be number one seed and tournament favorite. Her US Open price is only likely to drop from this each-way high point of 5/1 and The Overrule advises three points each-way, meaning three points on Azarenka to win the US Open at 5/1 and three points on Azarenka to reach the final at 5/2.

3* Victoria Azarenka win US Open (each-way) at 5/1 (Paddy Power) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Thursday, 25 July 2013

WTA Baku

In the last eight at the WTA event in Baku we get a glimpse of the future of the WTA as teenagers Donna Vekic and Elina Svitolina meet in a clash that looked likely on paper from the start of the week. Vekic has received a lot more press attention of the two thus far and has reached two WTA finals despite only being 17. That hype and attention is reflected in some very odd prices where Vekic is as short as 4/9 to beat Svitolina. 

The Ukrainian reached her first WTA semi-final last week on clay and has backed that up this week on hard by reaching the last eight. Conditions are absolutely brutal in Baku, just ask Galina Voskoboeva. 

There is no justification for Vekic to be this short against Svitolina in a match where I'd have Vekic as a marginal favorite. At 13/8 Svitolina represents a maximum five point selection. The pair have met once two years ago in a final on hard on the ITF Tour where Svitolina prevailed in straight sets.

At worst this price should represent in-play trading material. 

5* Elina Svitolina beat Donna Vekic at 13/8 (Bet 365)

Monday, 22 July 2013

ATP Umag

Most of the attention in Umag will likely be focused on top seed Richard Gasquet as well as Fabio Fognini who is coming in off the back of successive titles. However, our attention is on the bottom half of the draw where Andreas Seppi resides. The Italian is a best price 12/1 and is worthy of one point each-way in a negotiable half of the draw. Seppi hasn't reached a final this season but Umag represents a decent opportunity for that to change and 6/1 on the place is overpriced.

1* Andreas Seppi win Umag (each-way) at 12/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Sunday, 21 July 2013

WTA Stanford

The North American hard court season is about to get underway and Madison Keys is significantly overpriced in Stanford. The event in Stanford is noted for having some of the worst line calling imaginable so keep an eye out for that over the next week for comedy purposes. Agnieszka Radwanska is top seed and should have little trouble reaching the last four at worst where she'll hopefully meet Keys.

The American should get plenty of joy on this surface with her ever improving serve and forehand although she will have to negotiate some tricky encounters with Magdalena Rybarikova and possibly Jamie Hampton before she might get to meet Radwanska in the semi-finals. At 16/1 Keys is worth one point each-way where The Overrule would have her priced in the 10/1 range.

Keys pushed Radwanska at Wimbledon and if they meet in Stanford the young American can make it just as tough again for the world number four.

1* Madison Keys win Stanford (each-way) at 16/1 (Bet 365) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Sunday, 14 July 2013

Weekly Overview (14)

By the last eight stage Annika Beck was favorite to reach the final from the top half of the draw but put in one of her worst performances of the season against Yvonne Meusburger. Nicolas Almagro also lost at the quarter-final stage to Fernando Verdasco who went on to reach the final. 

Weekly performance - Stake: 6.00 Profit/Loss: -6.00 ROI: -100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 230.50 Profit/Loss: +28.70 ROI: 12.45%

Monday, 8 July 2013

A Step Ahead: US Open

Last week we were able to take Juan Martin del Potro at a high point of 33/1 to win the US Open and tonight further opportunity has presented itself in the men's outright market for the US Open. Del Potro's price has coming crashing down to a best price of 13/1 after his impressive performances at Wimbledon where he pushed Novak Djokovic to the brink despite not being injury-free.

Andy Murray's Wimbledon triumph has resulted in a slight overreaction with a couple of books and it's enough for The Overrule to further strengthen a position in this market. Sky Bet and Bet Victor have eased Djokovic out to 15/8 which is as big a price as he has been for the US Open since early March. Positions are split with some having Djokovic or Murray as marginal favorite and others having them priced as joint favorites.

There is very little splitting the two and they have now faced each other in three of the last four Grand Slam finals. The Overrule would still price Djokovic as the marginal favorite for the US Open where Djokovic has won once, been to three finals and two semi-finals in the past six years. Barring injury Djokovic's price is unlikely to go beyond the 15/8 it stands at now and a four point selection on him gives us green positions on what The Overrule considers to be two of the three main contenders for the title - Djokovic, Murray and del Potro.

4* Novak Djokovic win US Open at 15/8 (Sky Bet)

Sunday, 7 July 2013

ATP Bastad

In his last five trips to Bastad Nicolas Almagro's tournament has been ended by David Ferrer three times, that won't be happening this year as Almagro's nemesis is not entered into this season's clay court field in Sweden. Tomas Berdych heads the betting but is painfully short at 9/5 having to transition back from grass to clay after reaching the last eight at Wimbledon.

Almagro won this event in 2010 and could meet fellow Spaniard Fernando Verdasco in the last eight and possibly Grigor Dimitrov or Juan Monaco in the last four. At 4/1 Almagro is worthy of two points each-way in what will hopefully be another successful visit to Bastad for him.

2* Nicolas Almagro win Bastad (each-way) at 4/1 (Bet Victor) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

WTA Budapest

The WTA Tour returns to clay briefly for a couple of weeks before attention turns to the North American hard court season and Simona Halep heads the betting going into the event in Budapest. Halep won the first two titles of her career going into Wimbledon on clay and grass and deserves to head this field.

It's in the top half of the draw where The Overrule believes Annika Beck has a very negotiable draw until the last four where she could meet Lucie Safarova. A breakthrough is coming for the young German sooner or later and this is the kind of field where that could happen. Beck is available at 10/1 with 1/2 odds on each-way terms but we will go with the bigger 12/1 price but at 1/3 odds on the each-way terms.

One point on Beck at 12/1 to win the event and one point at 4/1 to reach the final.

1* Annika Beck win Budapest (each-way) at 12/1 (Bet 365) (each-way terms 1/3 odds 1-2 places)

Wimbledon Overview

Wimbledon is in the books and saw two first time champions in Marion Bartoli and Andy Murray. In the words of Maria Kirilenko, The Overrule's assessment of this Wimbledon as far as our own performance can be summed up as such...

In the outright markets Tomas Berdych (50/1) and Petra Kvitova (14/1) both reached the last eight but could not progress any further. Berdych had his chances in the opening two sets against world number one Novak Djokovic, particularly in the second set where he led by a double break. However, his lead vanquished within the blink of an eye and what looked like being a heavyweight tussle turned into a breeze for the Serbian.

Kvitova was the victim of Kirsten Flipkens and illness in the quarter-finals and what looked to be a great chance for the Czech to win her second Wimbledon title in three years soon turned into the story of her season - which was another disappointing exit.

Sabine Lisicki was vastly overrated by the market following her win over Serena Williams and Agnieszka Radwanska (11/4) came within two points of reaching a successive Wimbledon final against the German. That defeat may live long in Radwanska's memory. Her record against Marion Bartoli is a perfect 7-0 and Aga had won 14 consecutive sets against her. It's unlikely an opportunity will present itself like that again for the Pole in the near future.

Wimbledon performance - Stake: 45.00 Profit/Loss: -11.16 ROI: -24.80%

Season performance - Stake: 224.50 Profit/Loss: +34.70 ROI: 15.46%

Tuesday, 2 July 2013

Wimbledon - Semi Finals (I)

There will be a first time Grand Slam champion in the women's event which is always nice to see - but who will it be? It's been a very hard tournament to call on paper with the four main contenders at the start - Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Victoria Azarenka & Petra Kvitova - all failing to reach the last four. The market was wrong when Serena Williams went out and continues to be wrong as far as The Overrule is concerned.

Sabine Lisicki has been made a favorite against Agnieszka Radwanska which is extraordinary to me. Even if you factor in the potential that Aga is not 100% fit having required treatment during her quarter-final with Li Na the prices are still far out of whack. Make no mistake about it, Aga is a far more accomplished player than Sabine with a tennis IQ that Lisicki could only dream of having. Not to mention the fact Radwanska is a finalist from last year and took Williams to three sets in that final.

Lisicki dealt with Kanepi very well and didn't suffer any kind of let down that has befallen so many players in the past after huge wins. That doesn't change the fact she is being vastly overrated in the market and Radwanska not being given her due respect. At 6/4 Radwanska is a maximum selection for The Overrule given I'd price her as favorite to win.

Not only that but the outright market also can be taken advantage of and we'll lay out three points on Radwanska at 11/4 to win her first Grand Slam. Once again we'll be protected by a retirement in the match bet by backing with a void book as we nearly always do on The Overrule. Radwanska has almost 48 hours to recover and get ready for Lisicki. We'll count on her being able to perform to a good enough level to out smart Lisicki and make a mockery of the price.

5* Agnieszka Radwanska beat Sabine Lisicki at 6/4 (Bet 365)

3* Agnieszka Radwanska win Wimbledon at 11/4 (Bet 365)

Monday, 1 July 2013

Wimbledon - Quarter Finals (II)

Let the overreactions begin! Sabine Lisicki knocked out defending champion, world number one and overwhelming Wimbledon favorite Serena Williams, so naturally every sheep bettor in the world now wants to back her. The herd have spoken and Lisicki is priced as Wimbledon favorite in a number of places although she doesn't deserve to be. Some books have Petra Kvitova as joint favorite but the truth is that the 2011 champion is now the favorite. Whether that translates from paper on to the court is another matter, but on paper with her Wimbledon credentials and her less taxing path to the final the Czech should be favored to lift a second Wimbledon title.

Lisicki faces Kaia Kanepi on Tuesday in the last eight which will be the first meeting between the two. Kanepi broke the hearts of the BBC who have been ramming Laura Robson down our throats ever since she defeated Maria Kirilenko in the first round. Lisicki is the better player on grass and will no doubt be feeling confident of victory. However, with expectation comes pressure and not every player handles pressure routinely.

Kanepi is available with a +4.5 games start and the Estonian - with seemingly no one in the betting world willing to give her a chance - is capable of making the likeable and always smiling Lisicki work hard for a place in the last four. Just because Lisicki beat Williams, it doesn't mean she now is Williams.

3* Kaia Kanepi +4.5 games beat Sabine Lisicki at 5/6 (Ladbrokes)

Wimbledon - Quarter Finals (I)

Agnieszka Radwanska and Li Na have both reached the last eight of Wimbledon as most would have predicted amidst a tournament of huge upsets. The Overrule backed Li at the outset to win her quarter at 7/2 (2 points) and we're now in position to take the other side and ensure a green result either way. We'd like to keep most of our profit on Li's side so we won't split the balance down the middle.

This selection should only be made if you took The Overrule's advice to back Li to win her quarter at 7/2. Since this is a situation where we don't need or want a void retirement to be on our side should anything unfortunate happen to Li, we will back this selection with a 1-ball book. This means that a result is paid out on whoever advances once the first ball is struck.

Three points on Radwanska at 6/5 and with the original two points on Li at 7/2 means we'll either come out +1.6 on Aga or +4.0 on Li.

3* Agnieszka Radwanska beat Li Na at 6/5 (Coral)