Tuesday, 2 July 2013

Wimbledon - Semi Finals (I)

There will be a first time Grand Slam champion in the women's event which is always nice to see - but who will it be? It's been a very hard tournament to call on paper with the four main contenders at the start - Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Victoria Azarenka & Petra Kvitova - all failing to reach the last four. The market was wrong when Serena Williams went out and continues to be wrong as far as The Overrule is concerned.

Sabine Lisicki has been made a favorite against Agnieszka Radwanska which is extraordinary to me. Even if you factor in the potential that Aga is not 100% fit having required treatment during her quarter-final with Li Na the prices are still far out of whack. Make no mistake about it, Aga is a far more accomplished player than Sabine with a tennis IQ that Lisicki could only dream of having. Not to mention the fact Radwanska is a finalist from last year and took Williams to three sets in that final.

Lisicki dealt with Kanepi very well and didn't suffer any kind of let down that has befallen so many players in the past after huge wins. That doesn't change the fact she is being vastly overrated in the market and Radwanska not being given her due respect. At 6/4 Radwanska is a maximum selection for The Overrule given I'd price her as favorite to win.

Not only that but the outright market also can be taken advantage of and we'll lay out three points on Radwanska at 11/4 to win her first Grand Slam. Once again we'll be protected by a retirement in the match bet by backing with a void book as we nearly always do on The Overrule. Radwanska has almost 48 hours to recover and get ready for Lisicki. We'll count on her being able to perform to a good enough level to out smart Lisicki and make a mockery of the price.

5* Agnieszka Radwanska beat Sabine Lisicki at 6/4 (Bet 365)

3* Agnieszka Radwanska win Wimbledon at 11/4 (Bet 365)

1 comment:

  1. Can't believe these odds, either!!! I would actually consider it a bit of surprise if Lisicki beat Radwanska on Thursday. Although, I was hoping to cover my pre-tournament bet on Radwanska, I am now tempted to lump even more on the Polish girl. I'm not saying she will DEFINITELY beat Sabine but rarely do the bookmakers offer you gifts like this. Overrule is right, they've absolutely got it wrong here!

    Also think Aggie was exaggerating her 'injury' today to buy herself some time to sort her game out. She didn't appear inhibited in any way, still being able to play that weird shot, for example, where she contorts her body and plays the ball whilst practically sitting on her arse. Just amazing to watch!! Can't see injury being an issue for her.