Saturday, 27 July 2013

A Step Ahead: US Open

In the past I've stressed the importance of looking to take players at their highest points price wise for Grand Slams and how to assess when those moments have arrived. The Overrule has already locked in positions on Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro and now is the time to strike in the women's event.

Victoria Azarenka has been out of action since Wimbledon where she was forced to withdraw before her second round match with Flavia Pennetta due to injury. During this period Azarenka's US Open price has gradually inched out and anything above 4/1 would have represented value to us. Azarenka is now as big as 6/1 in the win only market and 5/1 in the each-way market.

The world number three, along with Serena Williams, is head and shoulders above the rest of the tour on outdoor hard court and that dominance is detailed here and here. Azarenka and Williams will avoid each other until the US Open final - providing Azarenka can overtake Sharapova in the intervening period, which is more probable than not in The Overrule's estimation barring injury - meaning we have 5/2 on Azarenka to get past six players who she is overwhelmingly superior to in many cases. If Azarenka fails to lock in the number two seed there will be a 50/50 chance she avoids Williams when the draw is made.

On paper it looks highly likely they will meet again in the US Open final, where Azarenka served for the match last year and was just two points away from winning the title.

Azarenka is expected to return from injury next week in Carlsbad where she will be number one seed and tournament favorite. Her US Open price is only likely to drop from this each-way high point of 5/1 and The Overrule advises three points each-way, meaning three points on Azarenka to win the US Open at 5/1 and three points on Azarenka to reach the final at 5/2.

3* Victoria Azarenka win US Open (each-way) at 5/1 (Paddy Power) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

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