Weekly Overview (Specials & 22)

Our season specials have come to a close, so it's time to look at that breakdown as well as the past week.

Sara Errani ended the season with one title which was under the 2.5 line. She was priced as favorite to win two titles this season in Acapulco and Palermo, the Italian won Acapulco but lost out to doubles partner Roberta Vinci in the final in Palermo. Errani made two other finals this season in Paris (Mona Barthel) and Dubai (Petra Kvitova).

Petra Kvitova ended the season ranked number six in the world while Angelique Kerber dipped down to nine. Their race was close until the Asian swing where Kvitova pulled away.

Mona Barthel ended the season ranked number thirty-four in the world which was under the 37.5 line we needed her to be at. This came in large part due to the early portion of the season where Barthel won Paris, reached a final in Hobart and a semi-final in Auckland. Since Indian Wells Barthel was barely able to put consecutive wins together.

Eugenie Bouchard obliterated her ranking over/under line which was set at 106.5. The Canadian began the year at 147 and ended it at 32.

Specials performance - Stake: 10.00 Profit/Loss: +8.88 ROI: 88.80%

Season performance - Stake: 313.50 Profit/Loss: +29.77 ROI: 9.49%

Here's the past week's breakdown...

Petra Kvitova defeated Agnieszka Radwanska in straight sets on the opening day of the event. Victoria Azarenka not only failed to win her group but she was also unable to qualify for the last four. Serena Williams capped off a quite phenomenal season with another title. 

Weekly performance - Stake: 10.00 Profit/Loss: +1.29 ROI: 12.90%

Season performance - Stake: 323.50 Profit/Loss: +31.06 ROI: 9.60%

ATP Paris

A long season is drawing to its final conclusion with the race to London still being a possibility for a number of players. One of those players is 2008 Paris champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he appeals in the outright each-way market at 40/1. Tsonga is drawn in the top half where he could meet world number one Rafael Nadal in the last eight, while Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro take their places in the bottom half.

It has been quite a while since a number one seed won Paris, the rigors of a long and demanding season taking its toll on the top players at this stage of the season with their eyes usually looking ahead to the year end championships. Andre Agassi was the last man to do so in 1999.

The Overrule will be placing half a point each-way on Tsonga at 40/1 and if he should make the last four would give us flexibility for the latter stages of the tournament.

0.5* Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win Paris (each-way) at 40/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Fed Cup Final

In short, the Russian team is in disarray.

In what was already expected to be a tough encounter in Italy on clay against the likes of Sara Errani, Roberta Vinci and Flavia Pennetta, the Russians find themselves without - for one reason or another - Maria Sharapova (who aside from being injured stated she wouldn't play the final as a respect to those who had got Russia there), Maria Kirilenko (Sofia), Svetlana Kuznetsova (unknown), Ekaterina Makarova (injured), Elena Vesnina (Sofia), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Sofia) and Nadia Petrova (injured and is only playing the WTA YEC doubles for the sake of her partner).

Whatever team the Russians end up with will be significant underdogs against a strong Italy team. The 1/2 available on Italy lifting the Fed Cup will surely start to nosedive once this news starts to filter out. The time to move is now with a maximum five point selection.

5* Italy to win the Fed Cup at 1/2 (Sky Bet)

WTA Year End Championships

The last meaningful week of the WTA is upon us (The Overrule doesn't consider Sofia meaningful no matter how much the WTA wants to make us believe it is) in Istanbul as the best players in the world round out the season.

The Overrule has three selections from the outset, one in the outright market, one in the outright group market and one selection for the first day's play.

4* Serena Williams win Istanbul at 8/11 (Bet Victor)

3* Victoria Azarenka win White Group at 8/11 (Sky Bet)

3* Petra Kvitova beat Agnieszka Radwanska at 7/10 (Bet Victor)

Weekly Overview (21)

Weekly breakdown.

Season overview.

Weekly performance - Stake: 7.00 Profit/Loss: -7.00 ROI: -100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 303.50 Profit/Loss: +20.89 ROI: 6.88%

WTA Luxembourg

In Luxembourg neither of the top three priced favorites appeal with Caroline Wozniacki too short at 11/5, Sabine Lisicki with an injury cloud at 5/1 and Sloane Stephens who continually underwhelms in tournaments of this nature at 8/1.

Looking further afield double digit prices on Andrea Petkovic at 10/1 and Lucie Safarova at 12/1 present more value. One point each-way on both players.

1* Andrea Petkovic win Luxembourg (each-way) at 10/1 (Ladbrokes) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

1* Lucie Safarova win Luxembourg (each-way) at 12/1 (Bet Victor) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

WTA Moscow

Two each-way selections for WTA Moscow focuses in on two Russian players in opposite halves of the draw - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Svetlana Kuznetsova. Potentially great value on Pavlyuchenkova with the possibility that top seed Angelique Kerber could pull out which would further increase Pavlyuchenkova's chances over what is an already inflated 28/1.

One point each-way on Pavlyuchenkova at 28/1 and half a point each-way on Kuznetsova at 20/1.

1* Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova win Moscow (each-way) at 28/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

0.5* Svetlana Kuznetsova win Moscow (each-way) at 20/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

US Open Overview

The Overrule's breakdown for the US Open...

In the outright markets Novak Djokovic (15/8) reached his third Grand Slam final of the year at the US Open and what was initially as testing a path to the final as he could have received on paper proved to be largely anything but.

Djokovic and Rafael Nadal played another typically awe inspiring match against each other on hard courts in the final and while both looked capable of running away with the final at various points it was eventually Nadal who did so in the fourth set after what proved to be a critical third set where Djokovic had plenty of chances.

Earlier in the tournament Juan Martin del Potro (33/1) exited surprisingly early at the hands of Lleyton Hewitt in the second round. Nadal (10/11) breezed his way to the final and we were able to extract great value with that selection as Nadal's cumulative match betting price to reach the final ended up being around 1/4 as opposed to the 10/11 we took him at.

Jerzy Janowicz's (4/1) tournament was partly derailed by a back injury and he wasn't able to advance beyond the first round in what had the makings of a negotiable draw.

In the women's event Victoria Azarenka (5/1 each-way) once again proved she's head and shoulders above anyone on hard courts who isn't named Serena Williams. Azarenka reached her second consecutive US Open final despite performing well below par in the mid rounds and continued to struggle on serve as she has done since returning from injury post-Wimbledon.

Much to the surprise of some (don't ask me why) the final was a highly competitive affair as the past three hard court finals between Williams and Azarenka had also been with all going the distance. Williams leveled up their outdoor hard court battles at 2-2 over the past 12 months and few would expect anything other than repeat finals at the WTA YEC in Istanbul later this year and next year's Australian Open.

Simona Halep (11/2) lost out to an inspired Flavia Pennetta in her quest to reach the latter stages. The Williams/Azarenka (6/5) final became a reality as we know with Williams being untroubled on her way to the final while Azarenka was forced into deciders by Alize Cornet and Ana Ivanovic.

In match bets Elina Svitolina (8/13) wasted untold amounts of break points against Christina McHale while Daniela Hantuchova (11/8) eventually saw off Alison Riske in three sets having blown a set and a break lead.

US Open performance - Stake: 32.00 Profit/Loss: +8.57 ROI: 26.78%

Season performance - Stake: 296.50 Profit/Loss: +27.89 ROI: 9.41%

The Overrule will be on hiatus from now and during the Asian swing of the season before returning at the resumption of the indoor season up until the respective end to the year of both tours. Tomorrow The Overrule will overview our pending Specials selections for the season. 

As always if you need to get in touch you can contact The Overrule either by theoverrule@gmail.com or on Twitter @JayJarrahi

US Open - Fourth Round

One selection for today's play.

4* Daniela Hantuchova beat Alison Riske at 11/8 (Paddy Power)

US Open - Second Round

Elina Svitolina opened up at between 4/9 and 8/15 for her second round match with American Christina McHale which was the right price in The Overrule's estimation at 8/15. Svitolina is now available at 8/13 which presents an opportunity for us to extract some value on the talented Ukrainian.

Svitolina is the only teenager on tour to win a title this year and has been highly touted by The Overrule since early in the year. The pair met last year on clay where McHale prevailed but while the American's career has stagnated, Svitolina is getting better by the week and month.

In first round action Svitolina defeated Dominika Cibulkova in straight sets and McHale did likewise against Julia Goerges who has been hopeless all season.

The Overrule advises a three point selection on Svitolina at 8/13 with Winner, who void retirements, which is our preferred rule on match betting selections.

3* Elina Svitolina beat Christina McHale at 8/13 (Winner)

US Open - Men & Women

Over the past few weeks The Overrule has locked in a few outright selections as follows;

2* Juan Martin del Potro 33/1 - current best price 16/1.

4* Novak Djokovic 15/8 - current best price 9/4.

3* Victoria Azarenka (each-way) 5/1 (1/2 odds 1-2 places) - current best price 7/2 win only market, 3/1 each-way market.

Following the draw here are further selections The Overrule believes represents value in specials markets.

5* Rafael Nadal to reach the men's final at 10/11 (Coral)

1* Jerzy Janowicz win men's third quarter at 4/1 (Coral)

2* Simona Halep win women's third quarter at 11/2 (BWIN)

5* Serena Williams/Victoria Azarenka women's final at 6/5 (BWIN)

Weekly Overview (20)

Weekly performance - Stake: 9.00 Profit/Loss: -9.00 ROI: -100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 264.50 Profit/Loss: +19.32 ROI: 7.30%

WTA New Haven (II)

Caroline Wozniacki, queen of New Haven, meets Sloane Stephens in the last eight tonight and The Overrule believes the Dane has been significantly overvalued. This match is far closer to a 50/50 battle than the prices suggest. Aside from the fact that Stephens generally tends to play well against "names" on tour.

Wozniacki wasn't particularly impressive yesterday against Karin Knapp, consistently being hit off court during prolonged periods of the second set. The former world number one appeared to be struggling with some kind of illness, taking a medical time-out mid-way through the second set.

Stephens overcame Julia Goerges in three sets last night having gone walkabout during the second set. Stephens took a fall during the first set but appeared to be unscathed despite mentioning her wrist to her coach. She didn't take a medical time-out to have it treated at any stage of the match, so we can believe that it's unlikely to be anything significant. 

The Overrule would be surprised if this price doesn't offer some in-play trading material and a routine straight sets victory for Wozniacki is definitely not on the cards.

3* Sloane Stephens beat Caroline Wozniacki at 11/8 (Bet 365)

WTA New Haven

A healthy field in New Haven with 4 of the top 10 and 9 of the top 20 set to compete. There are many individual story lines in this field but that would be for an article on Second Serve Ace - unfortunately, I don't have the time at the moment to write that story.

As far as the pricing is concerned two of the Russians - Ekaterina Makarova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - are considerably overpriced in a field where The Overrule wouldn't like to be backing anyone at single digits in the outright market for a variety of reasons.

Sorana Cirstea continues to be overvalued due to her run in Toronto. As many of you are aware opposing Cirstea and Julia Goerges as favorites has often provided plenty of value and a high frequency of winners to match. We're happy to oppose Cirstea with Pavlyuchenkova. Cirstea, Goerges and Sabine Lisicki are players to look to oppose at the US Open if the price is right which it might very well be.

1* Ekaterina Makarova win New Haven (each-way) at 33/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

1* Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova win New Haven (each-way) at 50/1 (Paddy Power) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

4* Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova beat Sorana Cirstea at 6/4 (Bet Victor)

ATP Winston Salem

There are question marks over the top three favorites with Tomas Berdych and John Isner having had deep runs in Cincinnati, while Gael Monfils is returning from an ankle injury that he says is still not 100%. There is potential for a big price to come through the top half of the draw but our focus is on the bottom half.

The Overrule advises one point each-way on Andreas Seppi at 20/1.

1* Andreas Seppi win Winston Salem (each-way) at 20/1 (Bet 365) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Weekly Overview (19)

Weekly performance - Stake: 8.00 Profit/Loss: -2.51 ROI: -31.38%

Season performance - Stake: 255.50 Profit/Loss: +28.32 ROI: 11.08%

WTA Cincinnati (II)

Bet 365 have created a "who will go furthest?" market for Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova who both take their place in the bottom half of the draw. The two players are set to meet in the last four where Azarenka should be favored to win. Sharapova hasn't played since Wimbledon with a hip injury while Azarenka withdrew from Toronto last week with a back injury having lost in the final of Carlsbad to Sam Stosur.

All things being equal the price should be tilted in Azarenka's favor and not split. On current form there is no discernible threat to either in their quarter of the draw and providing health is not an issue we should expect to see the rivalry between the two continue later in the week. If both players exit the tournament at the same stage the selection is void. Three points on Azarenka at 5/6.

3* Victoria Azarenka to go further than Maria Sharapova in Cincinnati at 5/6 (Bet 365)