Sunday, 26 May 2013

French Open - First Round (II)

Earlier in the season we benefited from an overreaction in pricing when Mona Barthel was made too short a favorite against Caroline Wozniacki and a similar but not as significant movement has occurred again in a match involving the former world number one. Most books had the marquee match-up of the women's first round between Laura Robson and Wozniacki at 5/6 or 10/11 a piece when prices were released but money came in on Robson.

That push has now eased Wozniacki out to 11/10 where The Overrule believes the Dane is overpriced. The original price was a fair reflection and I was inclined to believe Robson may sneak out the victory but the easing out of Wozniacki's price now offers us some value. Robson has a good track record of raising her game against high profile opponents but there is little justification for her to represent any value at 4/6.

Robson freely admits clay isn't best suited for her game and although she has a couple of notable scalps this season on the surface it's important to put those wins into context. After a 3 match losing streak on clay to Eugenie Bouchard, Lourdes Dominguez Lino and Ayumi Morita, Robson defeated an ailing Agnieszka Radwanska and pushed Ana Ivanovic to a deciding set tie-break in Madrid in the last sixteen. In fact Robson served for the match against the Serbian but failed to close it out. Robson also defeated Venus Williams in Rome but it's worth remembering that while sister Serena is playing as well as ever at the top of the women's game, Venus's best days are well and truly behind her and defeats of that nature are not unexpected.

While Robson has at least put some wins on the board in the build up to Roland Garros, Wozniacki's form is atrocious. She has lost 5 matches in a row on clay and confidence is understandably lacking as well as what looks to be a change in coaching set-up. That being said Wozniacki hasn't lost in the first round of the French Open since her debut in 2007 but history alone clearly won't be all she needs on her side tomorrow.

It's certainly hard to place much faith in Wozniacki producing a solid display tomorrow on current form but the price dictates that it's worth the shot despite her recent woes. At the very least the price offers the likelihood of in-play trade material.

The Overrule will back Wozniacki to win with a three point selection.

3* Caroline Wozniacki to beat Laura Robson at 11/10 (Paddy Power)

No comments:

Post a Comment