Saturday, 8 December 2012
The Discipline: Staking
As you will have guessed, the points system is also a confidence/ratings system, with five points being used on picks that I believe to be great value and/or have great confidence in. I'll always try to explain why I believe certain bets are better than others, and no doubt you will disagree with some, and that's ok. Ultimately, it's your money you're betting with, so the person you have to justify each bet to is yourself. It shouldn't be enough for you to blindly back someone's opinion - no matter their pedigree, because it's your money and the wins and losses will be yours.
If your lowest bet is usually £10, you can work off the basis that a 1 point tip is a £10 bet. Or if your lowest bet is usually £100, a 1 point bet is a £100 one and so on, moving up to 5 points, with potential bets of 6-10 points on outright each-way selections (of which there will definitely be some during the season). Outrights are where the bulk of our winnings will come from, there will be ample opportunity to take advantage of good prices throughout the year. I'll explain my process on outright betting before the season starts.
Lack of staking discipline is one of the biggest pitfalls of bettors, the tendency to chase when you've lost, or bet bigger than you normally would when you've won is a common theme amongst almost anyone who has placed regular bets in their life. We've all done it. The important thing is to stop doing it and learn from any mistakes you've made in the past. Everything about betting is a learning process.
Being successful through betting isn't actually that hard - not if you really understand the sports you bet and have an in-depth knowledge of that particular sport, allied with a fundamental understanding of tissue pricing and odds/probabilities - it's staying disciplined that's hard. That's the real test.
With respect to prices I tip and bookmakers/exchanges I advise, for obvious reasons I won't be able or willing to tip any prices that come from the company I currently work for.
I won't be tipping prices from exchanges such as Betfair - why? There will be times when the liquidity on Betfair isn't sufficient for me to justify a tip from the exchanges. What is the use to you - the reader - of a tip which you cannot physically bet on based on the points system because the liquidity just isn't there? Exactly, there is no use, and I'm not the kind of person who is looking to get my statistics inflated based on such deceptive opportunism. I've known people like that and I have absolutely no respect for them, put bluntly, they are frauds.
Each week I'll post the bets/results made for the week so we can keep a track of our staking, profit and the most important figure of all - ROI (return over investment). And as far as bets placed on specials/ante-post markets, naturally we'll highlight and settle those bets when the time comes to do so.
If you bet responsibly you will have more money at the end of 2013 than you did at the start of the year through the tips from The Overrule. So keep it in check and don't get greedy. There will be losing streaks and winning streaks, some bets we'll get somewhat fortunate on and others not, that's just the nature of sports and betting. It's important to stay on an even keel and that's far easier said than done for many of us - we are, after all, human beings who are prone to excesses - but it's the only way to be in order to profit long term from betting.
Coming up shortly I will have my first tip for the 2013 season.