Wednesday, 16 January 2013

Australian Open - Third Round (I)

Li Na was our outright each-way selection in the women's event and the former French Open champion can dispatch what has always been an erratic Sorana Cirstea. As some of you will know, Sorana is a particular favourite of mine, not necessarily due to her tennis, and we have no qualms about opposing her here. It wouldn't have surprised me had Cirstea lost before the third round, in fact it's a pleasant surprise she didn't.

However, Li has bigger things on the horizon and she can gain a measure of revenge for her Wimbledon exit at the hands of the Romanian. On a good day this is a match Cirstea can and has won, but the level of her tennis hasn't been of a standard during this early stage of the season where she can be expected to produce the level required. Li has looked, for the most part, solid and commanding this season and a straight sets win is more than likely in this match-up. I expect Cirstea to be under the gun early from a barrage of attacks and the match to quickly get away from her.

This match should be on a televised court and while we'll hate to see Sorana go, we'll love to watch her leave.

3* Li Na beat Sorana Cirstea 2-0 @ 2/5 (Paddy Power)

Julia Goerges can be added to the list of players The Overrule is looking to oppose this season. I was a fan of Goerges in the earlier part of her career, before she made a big splash by winning Stuttgart. However, it's been evident since then how overrated and over valued she has become in tennis and betting circles. Goerges attracts much hype more for what she appears to be, rather than what she actually brings to court. Julia has a good serve much of the time, but the rest of her game is incredibly inconsistent and she can often look like a player barely good enough to remain top 40.

She's notoriously a player not worthy of trust as a favourite, particularly a short-priced favourite, and plenty of money can and has been made by opposing her at short prices. On this occasion she isn't such a hot favourite, but we are still more than happy to take the price on offer for a Zheng Jie win. Zheng is coming off an impressive comeback against home favourite Sam Stosur, while Goerges defeated Romina Oprandi who was quite awful.

Zheng is worth a couple of points in this match and is far more likely to stick it out if the going gets tough. Goerges will either play really well or really badly, there is not much in between with her, and her good days aren't as frequent as many would like to believe.

2* Zheng Jie beat Julia Goerges @ 13/10 (Victor Chandler)

Another player The Overrule is looking to oppose and has already in this tournament is Jerzy Janowicz. By now you'll all know the Janowicz story and although he has ability, he clearly continues to be over valued. We opposed him against Simone Bolelli, but after a poor start, the Pole was able to come through in straight sets. His task was alot tougher in the second round against Somdev Devvarman and he overcame a two set deficit to reach this stage. Along the way he completely lost his cool with the umpire and almost blew a commanding fifth set lead. The match was eventful to say the least.

Nicolas Almagro is unlikely to let Janowicz off the hook in the way Devvarman did and the Spaniard is well versed in tough matches that need to be dug out. That lengthy second round battle may also come into play for Janowicz as another match in the heat is more than likely. Almagro is the better and fresher player and at 1/2 that is quite an appealing price for him to move on to the fourth round.

3* Nicolas Almagro beat Jerzy Janowicz @ 1/2 (Victor Chandler)

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