Thursday, 17 January 2013

Australian Open - Third Round (II)

Paddy Power have gained a reputation over the years as being customer friendly with all kinds of concession and money-back offers. It appears that for the Australian Open they are intent on offering substantial value on set betting markets, too. The Overrule backed Roger Federer to see off Nikolay Davydenko in straight sets and we have no choice but to advise the same again for his third round match with Bernard Tomic.

As it happens, I believe Tomic has a good chance of taking this to four sets, but the value on offer is for a straight sets victory and we'd be fools to pass it up. Federer loves challenges like this from young up-starts. I've always got the feeling he enjoys moments like this to send a reminder to those on their way up that they are a long way from home. Tomic may well be at home in Australia, but Rod Laver Arena is one of Federer's many homes that Tomic may never hold the keys to.

Take this price quickly, because it surely won't last.

2* Roger Federer beat Bernard Tomic 3-0 @ 10/11 (Paddy Power)

Yes, it's an exactly replica of the second round with straight set picks advised on Federer and Juan Martin del Potro. While the opportunity is there to take inflated prices at outcomes highly likely to occur, we'll gladly take them. Del Potro has looked on the ball from the get-go in Melbourne. His opposition has been nothing substantial but the Argentine is putting them away in a manner which suggests his almost inevitable last eight clash with Andy Murray is going to be as good as advertised.

We've backed del Potro at 11/2 in his quarter, we profited from him in the last round and we'll expect to do so against Jeremy Chardy. The Frenchman has the ability to stick with del Potro but he's also very capable of throwing in a sloppy service game that undoes his good work. Del Potro is serving very well and Chardy will have to just to stick with him.

As with Federer's price, this one is sure to drop soon, too. So don't waste time.

2* Juan Martin del Potro beat Jeremy Chardy 3-0 @ 8/15 (Paddy Power)

I'm not a fan of Milos Raonic, I find his game like much of the ATP, it just doesn't do it for me on a daily basis. Those that know me or have interacted with me know full well that my tennis allegiance lies fully with the WTA. For many, many reasons that I may eventually go into in detail on The Overrule at some point during the season. And, no, it's not just because of Sorana Cirstea.

People expect alot of Raonic and he hasn't yet delivered. There is a rawness to his game and mentality that I haven't seen any progression or improvements on, and thus he remains largely overrated at this point. His serve is clearly an outstanding weapon. However, his returns can be comical on a given day.

That being said his price of 8/11 to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round looks big to me, as I'd have priced him at 4/7 or even 8/13. 4/5 is available, but with a one-set book, so we'll avoid that, but if you want to take that risk for the bigger price the decision is entirely yours. It depends on how big you plan your stake to be to deem it worthwhile for you or not. We'll be placing three points on Raonic, but we want the fail safe in the event of a retirement, so 8/11 is good with us.

3* Milos Raonic beat Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 8/11 (Bet 365)

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