Friday, 28 June 2013

Wimbledon - Third Round (I)

On what is expected to be a frustrating day of rain delays The Overrule likes two prices for scheduled action on the fifth day of Wimbledon. Fernando Verdasco at odds-against appeals against Ernests Gulbis in the third round. Verdasco has already notched two decent wins over Xavier Malisse and Julien Benneteau while Gulbis benefited from a Jo-Wilfried Tsonga retirement in the last round.

Gulbis's longer wind-up isn't conducive to grass courts and it's no surprise he hadn't gone beyond the second round at Wimbledon until this year. Verdasco leads the head to head 2-1 with all of those meetings taking place on clay.

The Overrule is already invested in Petra Kvitova at 14/1 each-way in the outright market and another opportunity presents itself to back the 2011 Wimbledon champion. The draw has opened up for Kvitova like the parting of the red sea and on paper she has the best chance of reaching the final from the bottom half now that Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova are no longer factors.

Kvitova faces Ekaterina Makarova in the match of the day on the women's side which has the makings of a competitive encounter but 5/6 on Kvitova is generous. That price has moved out from an opening of 8/13 and is now too tempting to resist.

Makarova is a consistently underrated player on tour who has achieved some notable scalps in her career, against Kvitova (Eastbourne 2012) for a start, as well as Serena Williams (Australian Open 2012) and Azarenka (Eastbourne final 2010). However, Kvitova does deserve to be favored by more than the 5/6 suggests and the opening of 8/13 was closer to the mark. The market has pushed Kvitova out and we can now go in at the right time.

3* Fernando Verdasco beat Ernests Gulbis at 11/10 (Paddy Power)

3* Petra Kvitova beat Ekaterina Makarova at 5/6 (Boylesports)

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