Saturday, 15 June 2013

WTA Nurnberg

Jelena Jankovic and Simona Halep were priced up as favorites to meet in the clay court final in Nurnberg at the start of the week but Andrea Petkovic tore up half of that script with a very impressive performance against Jankovic in the last four. Petkovic came in to that match off the back of a very demanding three set win over the promising Annika Beck and produced her best display of the week in ousting the number one seed in straight sets.

Simona Halep was originally priced up as a 4/5 favorite to beat Petkovic but her price has drifted massively to 6/4. Why? Halep rolled her ankle in the second set against Lucie Safarova but regrouped to win in the third set 6-2. The market move is far too big an overreaction and we are protected against a retirement since The Overrule only advises match betting selections with retirement void books.

There is the possibility of Halep's ankle roll swelling up overnight causing her to withdraw from the final beforehand. However, if that proves not to be the case, judging by how she looked in the third set against Safarova she would be overpriced at 6/4 if she can play to the same level. Without any fear of injury Halep would have been a shorter favorite than an original 4/5 and the market move has swung too far the other way. Fortunately for us the best price available is with a void book so we'll be more than happy to place three points on a Halep victory and her maiden WTA title.

3* Simona Halep beat Andrea Petkovic at 6/4 (Bet 365)

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