ATP Sao Paulo

We wondered what price Rafael Nadal would go off at last week at Vina del Mar - the answer was 4/7. Nadal is due to capture a first title in his first tournament back on tour this evening in Chile and Victor Chandler are taking no chances on Nadal in Brazil. As it happens, the field in Sao Paulo is slightly tougher than what was on show in Chile with Nicolas Almagro and David Nalbandian both playing in Brazil.

However, both players are in the opposite half of the draw to Nadal - who will be playing doubles with Nalbandian in Sao Paulo - and Victor Chandler offer a paltry 1/4 on a successive Nadal clay court title. Shortening up Nadal to that level has beefed up Almagro's price higher than I expected it to be and makes him a viable each-way selection.

Almagro is the defending champion in Sao Paulo and he will present Nadal with his first meaningful test back on tour in a prospective final. Nico has a first round bye followed by possible meetings with Vina del Mar finalist Horacio Zeballos, one of Nalbandian or Fabio Fognini in the last eight and Pico Monaco in the last four.

Should Almagro reach the final against Nadal he should be able to make the match far more competitive than anyone else has against Rafa thus far and that 13/2 will look awfully big.

1* Nicolas Almagro win Sao Paulo @ 13/2 (Victor Chandler)