ATP Vina del Mar

The tennis week will be dominated by the return to the tour of Rafael Nadal and we'd be remiss on The Overrule not to touch on the Spaniard's return. Over the past few weeks I've been trying to decipher how I would price up Rafa's return, initially my belief was 1/2. Over the weekend, once the draw was available, I brought that into 4/11 as the field for Vina del Mar is particularly poor, which highlights the lack of depth in men's clay court tennis at present - but that's another subject entirely.

In the end the variance in price was quite significant between the books, Nadal was as short as 2/7 and yet as big as 4/7. That 4/7 has since been punched into 4/9. I expect Rafa to win this tournament without dropping a set, but it's hard to justify backing him when we have no idea how healthy he really is.

The fact that he has revealed he still has some discomfort is troubling and the greatest danger to him winning the event is having to pull out at some point as a precaution. Pico Monaco should reach the final from the bottom half of the draw, and the two are playing doubles together, also. Monaco is used to carrying Nadal on Playstation, but the situation is likely to be reversed on the doubles court.

Monaco was a backable each-way for me at 6/1, but that price is no longer available, and with the each-way terms for Vina del Mar being 1/3 of the odds, I'm not satisfied with the lower price on offer.

We advise no outright selections for Vina del Mar as it stands, but we'll be watching with interest.